Suddenly, however, a coldly calculating Kaddafi may have figured out how to get what he has long been denied: acceptance by the community of nations. And he’s eagerly cutting a deal with “the Devil,” Washington, to do so. He’s even turning into an eager stool pigeon against his former rogue cronies, providing critical clues in the unfolding international detective story of WMD proliferation. Since Kaddafi agreed two weeks ago to dismantle his WMD program, U.S. officials say the Libyans may yield more intel than the Iranians and even Pakistan, a key Washington ally but also a leading culprit in the spread of nuclear know-how. Presumably under Kaddafi’s orders, Libyan officials are divulging names of companies and individuals who are part of the nuclear “black market” referred to last week by Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. “This is a very sizable chunk of yarn that, as we pull it, is going to unravel in other places,” says one happy senior administration official.
Destroying the black market–an ever-changing array of middlemen from Germany to Sri Lanka–may be impossible. But Washington can claim progress in identifying major sources for centrifuges, the rogue technology of choice for enriching uranium to make bombs. In Libya as in Iran, much of the evidence trail seems to be leading back to the father of Pakistan’s nuclear-weapons industry, A. Q. Khan, “the Johnny Appleseed of centrifuges,” in the words of Harvard expert Matthew Bunn. Khan is suspected of having stolen centrifuge designs from Urenco, a European consortium where he worked in the 1970s. Investigators believe that most centrifuge designs on the black market stem from that theft. Khan, whose aides have been questioned but who still serves as an adviser to President Pervez Musharraf, is “the most promiscuous proliferator of nuclear technology in the world,” says a senior U.S. official.
Bush administration officials say Kaddafi’s apparent cave-in vindicates their new, tougher approach to WMD proliferation–and is a clear payoff from the decision to invade Iraq. Though he had been trying to negotiate a peace with the West for years, Kaddafi volunteered to dismantle his WMD program just days after Saddam Hussein’s very public capture. That delighted administration hawks whose major goal in confronting Saddam was to demonstrate to rogue dictators everywhere what their fate might be if they pursued nukes. Another Bush administration program announced last May–the 11-nation Proliferation Security Agreement, intended to interdict suspect ships on the high seas–also may have influenced Kaddafi. The program’s first success came in October, when it stopped a German cargo vessel carrying centrifuge parts to Libya.
Still, Kaddafi may be seeking some wiggle room. Last week Libyan officials suggested they expected the fast lifting of U.S. sanctions. Washington insists Kaddafi has a long way to go before he is “let out of the penalty box.” “This is far from a done deal,” said a senior Bush official who suggested that Kaddafi’s attempt to secretly import centrifuges in October–eight months after he first began negotiating with the United States–indicated he wanted to keep some nuclear capacity as “a residual insurance policy.”
U.S. officials were upset last week that ElBaradei traveled to Libya on his own and commented that Kaddafi was far from a nuclear weapon. One Bush official told news-week the statement was “rash.” IAEA officials, saying they did better than U.S. intelligence in assessing Saddam’s prewar nuclear program, were upset that Washington didn’t consult with them.
But it may be time for the administration to make its peace with the IAEA, the United Nations and other international organizations. Washington depends on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which is overseen by the IAEA, to isolate the rogues. To Washington’s delight, ElBaradei has begun to talk about revising the NPT to bar uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, even for civilian use. U.S. officials are discussing a new role for major nuclear suppliers, including Washington, whereby they will supply “safe” fuel for civilian plants instead. If there is any method to the madness of rogue tyrants like Kaddafi, such international cooperation may be the only way to counter it.
