“Ukraine is a maritime power,” claimed Col. Gen. Konstantin Morozov, the republic’s defense minister, “and since we have to guard our borders and our coast, we regard the Black Sea fleet as part of our armed forces.”
“Excuse me,” retorted Russia’s Adm. Vladimir Chernavin, commander of the former Soviet Navy, “but when has Ukraine been a great maritime power without ever having its own fleet?”
Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk demanded that all 1.3 million Soviet military personnel stationed on his territory pledge allegiance to the republic. A few soldiers complied, even though Russian President Boris Yeltsin seemed determined to prevent the Ukrainians from putting a move on the armed forces. But in a surprise move late last week, Russia agreed to concede part of the Black Sea fleet to Ukrainian control. Earlier, Russia had demanded loyalty oaths of its own. Last month Moscow moved its newest aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, from the Black Sea port of Sevastopol to Arctic Murmansk, far beyond Kravchuk’s reach. Enraged, the Ukrainians retaliated by disconnecting the primary electronic command system that enables Moscow to communicate with part of its ground forces in Ukraine, including units armed with tactical nuclear weapons. Commanders had to use backup phone systems that took hours longer to get messages through. By late last week, the link had not been restored.
With tempers rising, armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine was no longer unthinkable. “You’ve got to be nervous when guys with guns are being asked to sign competing loyalty oaths, “said a senior U.S. official. A Moscow newspaper, Nezavisimaya Gazeta, said Yeltsin was preparing a decree to take full control of the Soviet armed forces until their disposition is settled politically. Commonwealth foreign ministers meeting in Moscow made no immediate progress toward a settlement. But the Ukrainians couldn’t afford to take over all the forces deployed in their nation. Their Parliament has authorized a force of as many as 450,000 men, and Kravchuk has said he only wants 90,000. The excess Soviet weapons and personnel are bargaining chips to be used as the Ukrainians negotiate their relationship to the commonwealth-and to their Russian big brothers.
Meanwhile, the Soviet armed forces seem to have been stripped of some internal-security functions. In the Republic of Georgia, which has not joined the commonwealth yet, troops stood by for more than two weeks as heavily armed political factions blazed away at each other in Tbilisi, the capital. Last week the freely elected president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, fled to neighboring Armenia, leaving more than 100 people dead and the elegant city center in ruins. He vowed to fight on and still was supported by many-perhaps most-of the 5.6 million Georgians.
Yeltsin and Gen. Yevgeny Shaposhnikov, the commander of commonwealth forces, opposed using the Army as peacekeepers in regional disputes, and the Georgians were left to settle their differences with tanks and artillery. Both sides used weapons obtained, one way or another, from the Soviet Army; Kalashnikov automatic rifles were said to be selling for $200 apiece in Georgia. Other disgruntled ethnic groups and political factions may jump to the obvious conclusion: no one will step in to stop a fight. “We’re likely to see more and more of these struggles,” says Ronald Grigor Suny, an expert on commonwealth nationalities at the University of Michigan, “because no force exists anymore to mediate.”
In Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan, hundreds of people have been killed in ethnic violence over the last four years, despite frequent Soviet intervention. “We are at war with Armenia,” says Azerbaijan’s President Ayaz Mutalibov, who is creating his own army for the purpose. In Moldova, the 600,000-strong ethnic Russian community has set up its own state in the Dniester region, one of the last strongholds of diehard communism. The Moldovans who are related to the neighboring Romanians, charge that the Dniester regime is being supported by Ukrainian-based elements of the former Soviet army. In Russia itself, some of the 16 autonomous republics for ethnic minorities-such as the Tatars and the Chechen-Ingush–have declared their independence. If trouble starts, there will be no impartial central authority to deal with it.
The question of centralized is at the heart of the dispute between Yeltsin and Kravchuk. “Russia and Ukraine have disagreed from the git-go on how loose the commonwealth would be,” says a U.S. State Department official. The Ukrainians want it to be as loose as possible, partly to minimize Russian dominance over the other 10 members. Last week Ukraine distanced itself from the others a bit more by issuing food coupons, the first step toward a separate currency. Yeltsin seems to want more central coordination, regarding his Russian Federation as the logical heir to Soviet power. The Black Sea fleet and other elements of the Soviet armed forces are pawns in the political battle, and meanwhile, in many outposts of the former empire, no one is charged with keeping the peace.
Photo: Acts of faith: Former Soviet troops pledge allegiance to the Ukrainian state (ANDY HERNANDEZ FOR NEWSWEEK)
