To John Edwards’s “Two Americas,” add the idea of “Two Campaigns.” The real election in November will involve 100 million voters, most of whom pay little attention until after the World Series. So from now until fall, another, smaller campaign–a mostly cable and Internet event of interest to 5 or 10 million people–will dominate. But not much of this Cable Campaign will leech into the consciousness of the larger voting public. The irony is that the early noise is mostly for voters who are already committed. Early polls say nothing. Too much can happen in the world. And lightly aligned swing voters will likely swing back and forth several times before making a final decision.
Most Americans know nothing about Kerry, so Bush is trying to draw on the blank slate first. His argument is that Kerry is both a predictable liberal and a flip-flopper. (Which seems like a contradiction in terms, but never mind.) The GOP’s Elephant Echo Chamber will repeat endlessly that Kerry was for and against the No Child Left Behind bill, for and against the Patriot Act, for and against the Iraq war. Because the details are complex, Kerry does not yet have a good argument to blunt that attack. So he’ll try to jujitsu, arguing that Bush was the flip-flopper on steel tariffs, nation-building, adding new cops, funding programs for manufacturers–a “lip-service president” whose Labor Department last week reported an anemic 21,000 jobs created in February, leaving him close to 7 million jobs short of what he’s promised.
I’m not sure the whole flip-flopper bit works for either side. In 1932, Gov. Franklin D. Roosevelt was widely derided as an unprincipled “corkscrew candidate” who thought the shortest line between two points was a dozen twists and turns. When an aide complained about two drafts of a speech–one protectionist and one for free trade–FDR airily replied, “Weave them together.” Politicians have been doing that ever since and rarely get nailed for it. Of course Kerry lacks Roosevelt’s buoyant spirit, and he hasn’t yet learned the “Fireside Chat” lesson of conversing with the American people instead of orating to them.
Worse, Kerry’s background is mostly that of a critic. But if critics won votes, Paul Krugman would be president. Undecided voters don’t dislike Bush or what he has done. They just want to know if Kerry can do better for them on job loss and at least as well as Bush on security. That requires fresh, positive ideas about outsourcing and Iraq condensed into a message so clear and compelling that it compensates for the messenger’s long face. Even in the primaries, Kerry’s message was fuzzy.
The president is also working at cross- purposes with his own personality. His new ads try an uplifting message, but the subtext of his campaign is clear: we should be afraid, very afraid, for our physical safety should he lose the White House. Will this play in, say, the suburbs of Cincinnati? The risk is that his fear theme will cut into his likability. Who wants to have a beer (or an O’Doul’s) with someone who is scaring them, or, worse, exploiting 9/11? Beyond the firefighters and family members of victims who cried foul last week when Bush’s new ads showed footage from the sacred terrain of Ground Zero, other voters might just be tired of being reminded of their old fears.
Once politicized, the whole issue could cut against the president, on Iraq, homeland security and even the war on Al Qaeda. Between 1993 and 2001, Al Qaeda was responsible for five major bombing attacks, including 9/11. In the two and a half years since, there have been 17 Qaeda bombings, most recently in Turkey. Bush backers fret that even the capture of Osama bin Laden might yield only short-term political benefits because it is now expected.
My sense of this race is that Kerry will fall behind for a while. He’s not a good front runner and except for his goal of energy independence by 2020, his city on a hill is still under construction. But he has a way of growing on people. The enlisted men on his Vietnam Swift Boat at first saw him as an Ivy League stiff. Then he proved himself in battle and as a guy and now they swear by him. The real issue is how Bush wears. Any re-election fight is first a referendum on the incumbent. We know his city is heavily fortified and sits well to the right on the hill. But does it shine?
