SHE’S GOT A FRIEND IN PENNSYLVANIA (John Dickerson, Slate) In her victory speech, Clinton said “the tide is turning.” Whether that’s true will become evident in the coming days. Will the money start coming in, and will the superdelegates stop moving toward Barack Obama? (The campaign says the former has already started, with $2.5 million coming in since Pennsylvania was called for her.) If those two things happen, she will have stopped the tide, but to reverse it she will need to accomplish the very difficult task of winning over superdelegates who are resistant to the idea of reversing the will of the elected delegates to deny an African-American the nomination. The only way Clinton can actually reverse the tide is if she can convince those superdelegates that the Pennsylvania victory proved that Barack Obama is fundamentally flawed. This is more than an academic exercise. She needs to equip them with a set of arguments so strong that they can weather the violent uproar that will erupt in the base if superdelegates put her over the top.
WHY CLINTON WON PENNSYLVANIA (David Paul Kuhn, Politico) For all the campaigning and money spent, Hillary Rodham Clinton won Pennsylvania with the same base of white women, working-class voters and white men that revived her candidacy in Ohio last month. The demography that has defined the Democratic race went largely unchanged, according to exit polls. To Clinton’s relief, Pennsylvania proved more of a repeat of her win in Ohio rather than an echo of Wisconsin, where Obama won with the support of white men and blue-collar Democrats while neutralizing Clinton’s base of white female support.
DECISIVE WIN CAN’T FORESTALL A DAUNTING TASK (Dan Balz, Washington Post) Clinton’s path to the nomination remains extraordinarily treacherous even after the victory in Pennsylvania. Her margin was decisive, but even some of her most loyal supporters privately expressed doubts last night that she can prevail in the long battle against Obama. The senator from Illinois still leads in the number of pledged delegates and the popular vote. He is almost certain to hold the delegate lead and will probably maintain the popular-vote advantage when the primaries end in early June. Perhaps more important, Clinton’s campaign is nearly broke, whereas Obama has an enormous amount of money in the bank to throw into the next two contests and beyond.
MORE: Clinton Outduels Obama in Primary (Adam Nagourney, New York Times) The Democratic Party, so energized and optimistic just a few months ago, thus finds itself in a position few would have expected: a nomination battle unresolved, with two candidates engaged in increasingly damaging attacks. At a time when the Democratic Party would dearly like to turn its attention to Mr. McCain, it now faces continued damage to the images of both Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama.
OBAMA CAN’T CLOSE THE DEAL (Walter Shapiro, Salon) Demographics may be destiny in the Democratic presidential race – and almost nothing else matters. Despite the overwrought controversies swirling around visits to Bosnia and bitter blue-collar voters, despite one of the most plug-ugly debates in recent history, despite a late-breaking onslaught of negative ads, virtually every subcategory of the Democratic electorate performed in expected fashion. Clinton built her victory around women (57 percent in the exit polls), voters over 40 (her percentage rises in near lockstep fashion based on age), Pennsylvanians without a college degree (58 percent) and white Catholics (71 percent). Once again, Obama’s strength was among black voters (89 percent), the affluent (handily winning among families earning over $150,000 a year) and voters under 30 (61 percent). Despite Obama’s unquestioned lead in delegates, fundraising and the fervor of his followers, the Democratic race increasingly resembles an academic conference on the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. There are no verities, just various forms of spin-dried argumentation.
THE NEXT MCGOVERN? (John Judis, The New Republic) The primaries, unfortunately, are not going to get any easier for Obama. While he should win easily in North Carolina, where he benefits from a large African-American vote and support in the state’s college communities, he is going to have trouble in Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia, where he will once again be faced by a large white working class vote. He can still win the nomination and lose these primaries. Pennsylvania was the last big delegate prize. But if Obama doesn’t find a way now to speak to these voters, he is going to have trouble winning that large swath of states from Pennsylvania through Missouri in which a Democrat must do well to gain the presidency. That remains Obama challenge in the month to come.
OBAMA SHIFTING FOCUS FROM CLINTON TO MCCAIN (Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) Senator Barack Obama opened the next phase of his presidential campaign here Tuesday evening, seeking to turn his focus away from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and persuade party leaders that time is running out for Democrats to start defining their Republican opponent. A series of endorsements are scheduled to be announced in the coming days, including superdelegates who intend to pledge their support for Mr. Obama. And more campaign workers in the Chicago headquarters will be dedicated to taking on Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee. Mr. Obama only mentioned Mrs. Clinton by name once in his remarks at a rally here late Tuesday night, when he congratulated her on winning the Pennsylvania primary. He referred to Mr. McCain seven times, a pointed reminder to Democrats of the challenge that lies ahead.
OBAMA’S GLOVES ARE OFF–AND MAY NEED TO STAY OFF (Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victory yesterday in Pennsylvania has only accentuated the quandary that Obama faces: Stay negative and he risks undermining the premise of his candidacy. Stay aloof and he underscores Clinton’s argument that he will not be able to beat a “Republican attack machine” sure to greet him this summer. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe indicated last night which of those options they would take. “We’ve done a lot of counterpunching. We’ve been swift and effective,” he said. “For Democrats judging how we’re going to perform as the nominee, we have been relentless.”
