BARACK ON IRAQ (Michael Crowley, The New Republic) Today, Barack Obama’s campaign is largely based around a promise to “end the war” in Iraq by withdrawing troops within 16 months. But some Washington foreign policy mandarins insist this isn’t possible–that a total U.S. withdrawal isn’t achievable and Obama knows it. That Obama, like Nixon, in fact has a secret plan not to end the war… Or, at least, that Obama’s speeches overstate the feasibility of a near-term Iraq exit… The truth is Obama has no secret plan for Iraq. Interviews with nearly two dozen foreign policy and military experts, as well as Obama’s campaign advisers, and a close review of Obama’s own statements on Iraq, suggest something more nuanced. What he is offering is a basic vision of withdrawal with muddy particulars, one his advisers are still formulating and one that, if he is elected, is destined to meet an even muddier reality on the ground. Obama has set a clear direction for U.S. policy in Iraq: He wants us out of Iraq; but he’s not willing to do it at any cost–even if it means dashing the hopes of some of his more fervent and naïve supporters. And, when it comes to Iraq, whatever the merits of Obama’s withdrawal plan may be, “Yes, We Can” might ultimately yield to “No, we can’t.”
FOR OBAMA, A STRUGGLE TO WIN OVER KEY BLOCS (Adam Nagourney, New York Times) Mr. Obama remains ahead of Mrs. Clinton in delegates, in the popular vote and in national polls, and Mrs. Clinton certainly has her own problems trying to herd Democrats into her corner. But just when it seemed that the Democratic Party was close to anointing Mr. Obama as its nominee, he lost yet again in a big general election state, dragged down by his weakness among blue-collar voters, older voters and white voters. The composition of Mrs. Clinton’s support — or, looked at another way, the makeup of voters who have proved reluctant to embrace Mr. Obama — has Democrats wondering, if not worrying, about what role race may be playing.
THE INCREDIBLY SHRINKING DEMOCRATS (Joe Klein, Time) Obama… entered the primary as a fresh breeze and left it stale, battered and embittered — still the mathematical favorite for the nomination but no longer the darling of his party. In the course of six weeks, the American people learned that he was a member of a church whose pastor gave angry, anti-American sermons, that he was “friendly” with an American terrorist who had bombed buildings during the Vietnam era, and that he seemed to look on the ceremonies of working-class life — bowling, hunting, churchgoing and the fervent consumption of greasy food — as his anthropologist mother might have, with a mixture of cool detachment and utter bemusement. All of which deepened the skepticism that Caucasians, especially those without a college degree, had about a young, inexperienced African-American guy with an Islamic-sounding name and a highfalutin fluency with language. And worse, it raised questions among the elders of the party about Obama’s ability to hold on to crucial Rust Belt bastions like Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey in the general election — and to add long-suffering Ohio to the Democratic column. Yes, yes, the bulk of the sludge was caricature… But there is an immutable pedestrian reality to American politics: you have to get the social body language right if you want voters to consider the nobler reaches of your message.
CANDIDATES ON EQUAL FOOTING IN INDIANA (Jonathan Martin, Politico) Obama and Clinton have traded the lead in Indiana polls, but there have been few reliable local surveys to date. One thing seems certain: Unlike Pennsylvania, where Clinton began with a pronounced advantage, Indiana is a state where the two candidates begin on equal footing. For Obama, the raw math suggests a slight advantage. Upward of 25 percent of the primary vote will come out of just two counties: Marion County is home to Indianapolis, the capital and state’s largest city, and Lake County is home to industrial Gary, located in the northwest corner of the state and part of the Chicago media market. Both will strongly favor the Illinois senator, Indiana political observers predict, thanks in part to large African-American populations… Indiana pols expect [Clinton] to run strong across a swath of central and southern Indiana, in the counties well beyond Indianapolis and Bloomington (home to tens of thousands of Indiana University students and professors) that are culturally similar to neighboring Ohio and Kentucky. The battleground could well be in two places: the fast-growing, mostly white exurbs around Indianapolis and the northern part of the state outside the Chicago orbit where there are pockets of white ethnics, blacks, college students and rural voters.
MORE: Indiana Poses Challenge for Both Democrats (Amy Chozick and Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal) Sen. Barack Obama is under pressure to knock Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race and prove he can connect with working-class whites, while Sen. Clinton must narrow the delegate gap in order to bring in donations and keep her candidacy going.
EVEN MORE: For Indiana Voters, Talk of Change May Fall Flat (Monica Davey, New York Times) Many of the two dozen voters interviewed in this central Indiana manufacturing city of 46,000 expressed queasiness over the notions of change that both Democratic candidates have proudly pledged elsewhere. Though residents bemoaned economic conditions that have taken away thousands of factory jobs and given the state the 11th-highest rate of foreclosures, they also said they worried about doing things — anything — very differently.
THE QUEEN OF PORK (Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone) Even John McCain, who boasts that he doesn’t request “earmarks,” as pork-barrel spending is known on the Hill, actually has at least one to his name. And Barack Obama has not been shy about steering taxpayer dollars to people who might be able to help his presidential bid. But of the three candidates, no one can touch Hillary Clinton for her expertise in dispensing federal pork. She is fast becoming a sort of Heavyweight Earmark Champion of the Beltway — one think-tank analyst has even dubbed her the “Queen of Pork” — who excels as a favor trader not only in sheer quantity but in brazenness as well. A recent examination of this year’s earmark requests shows her solidifying her champion status more and more with each passing year, even under the ostensibly bright lights of a presidential campaign.
ASSESSING STRENGTH IN SWING STATES (Patrick Healy, New York Times) Mrs. Clinton says her popularity among blue-collar workers, women and Hispanics makes her the candidate to beat Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the swing states that decide presidential races… Yet for all of her primary night celebrations in the populous states, exit polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr. Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia. According to surveys of Pennsylvania voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, Mr. Obama would draw majorities of support from lower-income voters and less-educated ones — just as Mrs. Clinton would against Mr. McCain, even though those voters have favored her over Mr. Obama in the primaries. And national polls suggest Mr. Obama would also do slightly better among groups that have gravitated to Republican in the past, like men, the more affluent and independents, while she would do slightly better among women.
FOR MCCAIN, DIFFERENT PLACE, SAME MESSAGE (Jule Eilperin and Michael D. Shear, Washington Post) Earlier this week, McCain sought to assure African Americans in Selma, Ala., that he is committed to helping places ignored by “sins of indifference and injustice.” On Tuesday, he sympathized with workers in the fading factory town of Youngstown, Ohio. And on Thursday, he is scheduled to tour the Ninth Ward of New Orleans, where residents continue to struggle in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. McCain is reaching out to voters in these Democratic strongholds to try to build the broad, center-right coalition that aides believe is necessary for him to become president. Advisers do not think Republicans alone can elect McCain, given how many have become disenchanted with President Bush and his policies. McCain’s “Time for Action” tour is less about specific proposals; those will come later, advisers said. The important part, they said, is for McCain to lay the groundwork in places such as Inez to credibly claim that he cares about the people who live on the edge of the modern economy. In effect, McCain is launching Version 2.0 of Bush’s “compassionate conservative” campaign. McCain is not likely to have an easy time of it.
BARACK OBAMA STILL TAKES IN OIL MONEY (Dan Morain, Los Angeles Times) Sen. Barack Obama continued accepting donations from oil company executives and employees last month even as he aired ads in which he stated he took no oil company money, his campaign finance reports show. Obama has taken at least $263,000 from oil company executives, family members and employees since entering the presidential race last year, including $46,000 last month. At least $140,000 has come in chunks of between $1,000 and $2,300, the maximum permitted under federal law… Obama spokesman Ben Labolt said unlike Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and McCain, Obama refused to take money from federal lobbyists and political action committees. “He accepted no contributions from oil and gas company political action committees, or from those who are paid to lobby Congress on behalf of oil and gas companies – the money that is intended to purchase influence and access on behalf of corporate interests,” Labolt said.
THE LAW OF RULES (Josiah Lee Auspitz, Washington Monthly) In all, 2008 presents quite a test for PLEOs and The Charter and the By-laws of the Democratic Party of the United States, as the rules are officially called. Quite a test, in other words, for the leadership of the National Democratic Party in convention assembled. For the first time since the McGovern candidacy of 1972 the Democrats can expect to be judged by the electorate on how they conduct themselves under their own procedures. The Democrats control both houses of Congress. Voters will surely consider how they govern themselves in deciding whether to entrust them with the White House as well. And that is why the topic of party rules, usually so arcane and tedious, can and should interest every citizen this year.
