THE PERIL OF OBAMA (Virginia Postrel, The Atlantic) To rely on illusions is to risk disillusionment. If Obama the dream candidate becomes Obama the real president, he’ll be forced to pick sides, make compromises, and turn “hope” and “change” into policies some people like and some people don’t. Or, like the movie star governor of California, he might choose instead to preserve his glamour by letting others set the agenda. Either way, his face won’t make America’s worries disappear, and his cool, polite manner won’t eliminate political disagreements. Some of his supporters will feel disappointed, even betrayed. The result could be a backlash, heightened partisan conflict, and a failed presidency. George W. Bush ran as a uniter, and Jimmy Carter promised national renewal. Obama must have an inkling of these perils.
STAY IN IT TO WIN IT (Bob Shrum, New York Times) She has very little chance of winning, but Hillary Clinton has no reason to get out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination — for now. A long shot isn’t the same as no chance at all. And an extended campaign doesn’t have to wound the nominee, assuming a measure of self-restraint on both sides… She should win [Pennsylvania] by double digits — and she has to. Then she would need to upend expectations by winning North Carolina on May 6, and then roll up big margins in the remaining states — from West Virginia and Nebraska on May 13 to Montana and South Dakota on June 3, the campaign’s last day of voting. This is a tall order. If she cannot fill it, Mrs. Clinton should then decide it’s time for her to go. If instead she insists on protracting the race, calls in June for her to quit would be right in principle and right for the party. But we are not at that stage yet. Calls for her to concede now, before the race is lost, are premature.
KNOCKOUT TRY COULD BE RISKY FOR OBAMA (Jeanne Cummings, Politico) Barack Obama raised $40 million in March, about twice as much as Hillary Clinton. He’s got thirty offices in Pennsylvania; she’s got 21 offices. He’s outspending her on Pennsylvania television by about five-to-one. And a flood of new voter registrations in the state – thousands of which were generated by his volunteers — suggest the electorate is changing in ways that work to his benefit. At no time in this tightly fought presidential primary has there been such a stark imbalance between the two Democrats. So, why not go in for the kill? That’s what then-Texas Gov. George Bush did in 2000 when he set out to crush Sen. John McCain and settle the Republican presidential primary once and for all. But what might have seemed a no-brainer in any other cycle is anything but in this unprecedented 2008 Democratic primary, say campaign advisers and political experts. While it may be tempting for Obama to launch a final assault, some experts say, there are limits to what he can expect to accomplish given the state’s unique demographic mix and the striking consistency of primary voting patterns thus far.
CLINTON AIDE MET ON TRADE DEAL (Susan Davis, Wall Street Journal) Hillary Clinton’s chief campaign strategist met with Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. on Monday to discuss a bilateral free-trade agreement, a pact the presidential candidate opposes. Attendance by the adviser, Mark Penn, was confirmed by two Colombian officials. He wasn’t there in his campaign role, but in his separate job as chief executive of Burson-Marsteller Worldwide, an international communications and lobbying firm. The firm has a contract with the South American nation to promote congressional approval of the trade deal, among other things, according to filings with the Justice Department… Mr. Penn has been scrutinized over the dual roles he holds with his firm and the Clinton campaign. Burson-Marsteller’s contract advising the Colombian government is one of several examples of the firm advising clients on causes Sen. Clinton has opposed.
FULL COFFERS BOOST OBAMA AD’S FIREPOWER (Aaron Rutkoff, Wall Street Journal) While presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and John McCain garnered some buzz this week with dueling “3 a.m."-themed attack ads, Barack Obama exploited his fund-raising advantage by blanketing Pennsylvania’s airwaves and far outspending his rivals. According to figures compiled by Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, the Obama campaign has bought about $3 million of TV ad-time statewide in the Illinois senator’s quest for the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination. The Clinton campaign, by contrast, has spent just under $1 million. With his swollen war chest, Sen. Obama has pushed beyond Pennsylvania and into North Carolina and Indiana, spending about $250,000 in each state over the past week.
MORE: Clinton Camp Feels Spent, and Outspent (Matthew Most, Washington Post) Even Clinton’s most energetic boosters expressed exhaustion by the call to raise more money. “I’ll tell you, after a year of doing this, it’s like asking me to run a half-marathon after I’ve run a marathon,” said Mark A. Aronchick, a co-chairman of Clinton’s Pennsylvania campaign, who is organizing five fundraisers over the next eight days… Obama’s ability to capitalize on a sustained wave of online support has enabled him to spend almost all of his time campaigning. Clinton has attended more than a dozen fundraisers since Jan. 1, and her husband, former president Bill Clinton, has appeared at more than 40, while Obama and his wife have attended fewer than 10 during that time.
SUPERDELEGATES FRET OVER BLOWBACK (Josephine Hearn, Politico) Rep. Jason Altmire, a freshman and an uncommitted Pennsylvania superdelegate, voiced a fear evidenced by many of the undecided superdelegates–that the increasingly sour and bitter tone of Democratic voters, prompted by weeks of Barack Obama-Hillary Clinton trench warfare, could pose political peril if superdelegates make the wrong choice. “Three months ago, everyone in the district was saying how great it was to have these strong candidates,” he said. “Now whenever I’m at a rally or somewhere else, I hear people saying, ‘I used to like Jason, but if he endorses the one I don’t like, I’m not going to vote for him.’ " For junior members, who tend to be more vulnerable to challenge than more entrenched senior members of Congress, the concern is that making a choice at this point — any choice — could harm their own reelection hopes. All Democratic members of Congress are superdelegates. Those anxieties could help explain why exactly half of the 42 freshmen Democrats in the House — and exactly half of the eight Senate Democrats elected in 2006 — have yet to commit to a presidential candidate.
OBAMA’S SUPPORT SOFTENS IN POLL, SUGGESTING PEAK HAS PASSED (Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee, New York Times) The survey suggests that Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, may have been at something of a peak in February, propelled by a string of primary and caucus victories over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and that perceptions of him are settling down… Still, the events of the last month do not appear to have fundamentally altered the race for the party’s nomination or provided what Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has been seeking: evidence of a collapse in Mr. Obama’s standing or an overwhelming preference voiced for Mrs. Clinton by Democratic voters in polls, developments that could be used to persuade uncommitted superdelegates to sign on with her.
VOODOO HEALTH ECONOMICS (Paul Krugman, New York Times) As Mrs. Edwards pointed out, the McCain health plan would do nothing to prevent insurance companies from denying coverage to those, like her and Mr. McCain, who have pre-existing medical conditions. The McCain campaign’s response was condescending and dismissive — a statement that Mrs. Edwards doesn’t understand the comprehensive nature of the senator’s approach, which would harness “the power of competition to produce greater coverage for Americans,” reducing costs so that even people with pre-existing conditions could afford care. This is nonsense on multiple levels.
