TESTIMONY BY GENERAL WILL TEST CANDIDATES FOR PRESIDENT (Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times) Three presidential candidates and two very different views of Iraq will be on full display on Tuesday as Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top American commander in Baghdad, testifies before the Senate in a marathon session of war and White House ambitions… Over all, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, both Democrats, are likely to criticize the costs of the war and a lack of political progress. Mr. McCain, an early supporter of the troop escalation who has acknowledged that his political fortunes are directly tied to American success in Iraq, will say that the “surge” is working, and is likely to add that the Democrats are ignoring the gains.
CANDIDATES MAY DRAW NEW MAP (Gerald F. Seib, Wall Street Journal) McCain advisers think a wide independent streak in Minnesota and Wisconsin could put those states in play, and that the McCain crossover appeal to more-conservative Democrats will help put economically strapped Michigan and Pennsylvania within reach. In their view, that same McCain profile brings into play Oregon and Washington in the Northwest, as well as New Hampshire in the Northeast. New Jersey is another big target; it is home to lots of moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats who could gravitate to Sen. McCain. The giant question is California… The Obama camp thinks his appeal to new kinds of Democratic voters means he can bring back into the party’s fold states such as Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, all of which President Bush carried in 2004, and hold Washington state… [He] could bring into play some Southern states with big black populations. Chief among those is Virginia.
OBAMA’S YOUNG BACKERS TWIST PARENTS’ ARMS (Jan Hoffman, New York Times) As the race for the Democratic presidential nomination continues, youthful volunteers for each candidate have been campaigning with bright-eyed brio, not only door-to-door but also at home. But the young supporters of Mr. Obama, who has captured a majority of under-30 primary voters, seem to be leading in the pestering sweepstakes. They send their parents the latest Obama YouTube videos, blog exhortations and “Tell Your Mama/Vote for Obama!” bumper stickers… Even politicians are mentioning the persuasiveness of their children, either in earnest or as political cover, as a factor in their Obama endorsements… Rarely have the political preferences of children themselves carried much weight with their elders. On the contrary: when baby boomer parents were the age their children are now, the ideological and social gap between generations was more pronounced. Parents were, by definition, authoritarian. Their children were, by definition, anti-. But the sharp distinctions between generations have eroded.
SHIFT AT TOP MIGHT MEAN SHIFT IN TONE FOR CAMPAIGN (John Harwood and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) The question is whether Mr. Garin, in succeeding Mark Penn, his Harvard classmate, can make life different for a candidate with dwindling opportunities to overtake Senator Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination before the August convention. By all accounts, from outsiders as well as Clinton loyalists, it is a long shot. “I’m operating on a shorter time horizon,” Mr. Garin said in his office at Peter D. Hart Research Associates, the polling firm where he has worked for three decades. “The immediate imperative is to win and do well. For the next few weeks, we have to do that. If we do that, the weeks after that will take care of themselves.” For now, Mr. Garin is helping to provide a cathartic moment for a Clinton team riven for months by infighting and antagonism. Low-keyed, he stands in some ways as the antithesis of his predecessor — as easy-going as Mr. Penn is brusque, known for offering unvarnished analysis in contrast to Mr. Penn’s reputation for incorporating his centrist views in his advice to candidates.
MARK PENN’S MISSED MICROTRENDS (Peter Feld, Portfolio) What was surprising about Penn’s tenure with Clinton’s campaign is not the conflict that ended it (talented campaign strategists often lend their skills to corporate clients between election cycles), but Penn’s failure to apply his own theories as well as the opposition did… Perversely, Obama’s success has vindicated Penn’s microtargeting approach. This year, microconstituencies that could easily have fit Penn’s book were poised to make a huge splash in the relatively small Democratic primary pool, swelling 2004’s turnout of 16 million by 80 percent. (Primary and caucus voters are a small, skewed fraction of those who cast ballots in November, estimated at 122 million voters in 2004 and certain to grow this year.) Receptive to messages of inspiration, change and political reform, groups like newly energized Internet donors, nostalgic middle-aged liberals, freshly recruited pundits, and atypically upscale independents have provided Obama’s keys to success.
MORE: Clinton Advisors Pushed for Penn to Go (ABC News) Sources tell ABC News, two top advisors made the case to the Senator to remove Penn – Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy. Flournoy is a longtime teacher’s union leader who has taken on a prominent role in the Clinton campaign ever since Maggie Williams took the helm as campaign manager. Ickes and Flournoy told Senator Clinton, according to sources, that she needed to “throw Penn under the bus” to regain the support of unions. Trade is a prominent issue in the Pennsylvania primary.
EVEN MORE: Ouster Opens Opportunity for Obama (New York Times) The incident involving Mark Penn threatens to put Mrs. Clinton on the defensive over trade, as Mr. Obama’s labor backers accuse her of not being tough enough on preventing agreements that they say cost American jobs. The issue is certain to resonate in Pennsylvania, which holds its primary on April 22 and where one of four primary voters is expected to be from a union household.
MCCAIN TIES WITH ARIZONA BLACKS STRAINED (Jonathan Martin, Politico) Interviews with black civic and business leaders in Arizona found no one who suggested that McCain holds racial animus. And McCain can point to some warm personal and political associations with blacks, some of whom cited his responsiveness to their concerns when they approached him on official business. But the widespread perception of activists in the state’s traditional civil rights organizations and the African-American press is that McCain has consistently treated them with indifference… Symbolism can prove important in presidential campaigns. This could be especially true if McCain finds himself in a general election contest against Democrat Barack Obama, a campaign in which Obama’s precedent-shattering status would virtually guarantee racial issues a prominent role… McCain’s campaign said that the senator has every intention of competing for the black voter, even against Obama.
OBAMA CONFIDANTE JARRETT WIELDS CLOUT OF CAMPAIGN INNER CIRCLE (Julianna Goldman, Bloomberg News) Jarrett’s easy intimacy with both Obama, 46, and his wife, Michelle, has helped place her among his most important advisers. She brings to his campaign a background as one of the most powerful women in Chicago, where she was chairman of the Chicago Stock Exchange and served as city commissioner of planning and development. She currently sits on several boards, including that of USG Corp., a maker of building materials. Jarrett, 51, a constant, behind-the-scenes presence on the campaign trail, has the Obamas’ trust and attention, said William Daley, an adviser to the candidate and former commerce secretary under President Bill Clinton.
