DEMS FACE A LONG BRAWL (John F. Harris and Jim VandeHei, Politico) For months, Democrats have congratulated themselves on an embarrassment of riches: Two larger-than-life politicians, both potential history-makers who symbolize the party’s celebration of diversity. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama both won admiration from lots of people backing the other candidate. Well, forget all that. The up-with-people phase of this contest is over. The clear-the-benches phase has begun — a brawl that now is more likely than not to continue until the Democratic nomination in late August. Obama’s failure to win Ohio and Texas and lock down the nomination — combined with Clinton’s newly defensible decision to press on despite a deficit in delegates — virtually guarantees Democrats a draining contest that will give Republicans a months-long head-start on the general election. It will heighten racial, ethnic, gender, and class divisions already on stark display, raise awkward questions about the legitimacy of the nominating process, and inflict potentially lasting wounds on the eventual winner.
MORE: Democrats Fear an Ugly End to Race (Peter Nicholas, Los Angeles Times) Leading Democrats scrambled Wednesday to prevent the closest, most riveting presidential contest in decades from tearing the party apart, as the odds rose that neither Hillary Rodham Clinton nor Barack Obama could clinch the nomination without angering large blocs of voters.
AND THEN THERE WERE THREE (Ben Smith, Jonathan Martin and Carrie Budoff Brown, Politico) After Tuesday’s primary results, which ended the race for the Republican nomination and prolonged that for the Democratic nod, the three remaining campaigns must re-examine their strategies. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton finally found a formula that worked for her after a month of losses: pressing Obama on the economy and his readiness to lead. Will it be enough to sustain her momentum? Sen. Barack Obama will need a new strategy to defend his narrow delegate margin. He might throw Clinton’s attacks on his experience right back at her. And Sen. John McCain is sitting pretty after four more wins and the surrender of his remaining key competitor, Mike Huckabee. But he won’t just sit around until August, and he won’t just stay in red states, either.
WILL MCCAIN’S HAWKISH VIEW PLAY ON NATIONAL STAGE? (Elizabeth Holmes and Neil King, Jr.) His worldview will likely pose a contrast to his opponent, be it Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or New York Sen. Hillary Clinton. Sen. McCain and his Republican allies are preparing a campaign built around the assertion that either Democrat would be too soft. The Democratic nominee will likely portray Sen. McCain as a reckless saber-rattler. “He’s more confrontational, he’s more coercion, he’s more sticks,” said retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Scott Gration, who advises Sen. Obama on foreign policy and national security. “It’s time to go back and do carrots.” Even some of Sen. McCain’s closest allies say he may need a little polishing. “He’s a street fighter – and that’s a good thing,” said Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, a longtime McCain supporter who has traveled with the senator to Iraq. “But you have to learn to be a street fighter on the world’s stage.”
WHY SHE ISN’T DEAD (Robert Novak) Assuming that Sen. Clinton at best would eke a victory in Ohio Tuesday to end her long losing streak, prominent Democrats were organizing a major private intervention. A posse of party leaders would plead with her to end her campaign and recognize Obama as the Democratic standard-bearer. To buttress this argument, several elite unelected super-delegates (including several previous Clinton supporters) were ready to come out for Obama. Those plans went on hold Tuesday night.
MORE: Clinton Success Alters Delegate Race Dynamics (Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse, New York Times) Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s victories in the primaries on Tuesday barely dented Senator Barack Obama’s lead in delegates, but they seemed to slow the Democratic Party establishment’s move in his direction while giving her campaign time to try to turn the race in her favor.
NEXT BIG PRIMARY, PENNSYLVANIA, PLAYS UP CLINTON’S ADVANTAGES (Nick Timiraos, Wall Street Journal) Sen. Hillary Clinton has more good news to follow her election wins in Texas and Ohio: The next big contest comes in a state where she goes in with several advantages.
BOTH OBAMA AND CLINTON HOLD EDGE OVER MCCAIN (Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta, Washington Post) Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) kicks off his general-election campaign trailing both potential Democratic nominees in hypothetical matchups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) leads McCain, who captured the delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination Tuesday night, by 12 percentage points among all adults in the poll; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) holds a six-point lead over the GOP nominee. Both Democrats are buoyed by moderates and independents when going head to head with McCain and benefit from sustained negative public assessments of President Bush and the war in Iraq.
EXIT POLLS REVEAL OBAMA’S WEAKNESSES (John Judis, New Republic) Many white working class voters abandoned the Democrats in the ’80s because of the complex of issues that surround race–including crime, education, and welfare. Obama could have a problem among these voters because he is an African American. The exit polls ask voters whether the “race of the candidates” was “important” in deciding their vote. If one looks at the percentage of Clinton (and earlier Edwards) voters who said it was “important,” that is a fair estimate of the overall percentage of primary voters who were not inclined to vote for Obama because he was black…In some February 5 states, the overall percentage of white (or Latino) primary voters who voted for white candidates partly because of race was pretty high. It was 9.5 percent, for instance, in New Jersey. In the general election, that percentage is likely to double; and some of these additional voters will be white working class or Latino voters that a Democratic candidate needs to win. In Wisconsin, the number was very low–only 6 percent. But in Ohio, a crucial swing state, it was 11.4 percent. That’s a real danger sign for Obama in a state where elections can be decided by one or two percentage points.
BUSH’S EMBRACE POSES DILEMMA FOR MCCAIN (Laura Meckler, Wall Street Journal) President Bush embraced one-time rival Sen. John McCain yesterday with a White House lunch and Rose Garden endorsement, but Mr. McCain now must weigh both the benefits and risks of his support. Mr. Bush remains popular with party loyalists but may be a drag among independent voters who have turned against him. Mr. Bush himself acknowledged the dilemma, telling reporters he’d be happy to campaign either for or against Sen. McCain. “I want him to win,” the president said… McCain aides plan to use Mr. Bush for fund-raising and at events in heavily Republican parts of the country. But they do not foresee many joint campaign appearances.
EVEN IN VICTORY, CLINTON TEAM IS BATTLING ITSELF (Peter Baker and Anne E. Korblut, Washington Post) proved sweet indeed. They savored their wins yesterday, plotted their next steps and indulged in a moment of optimism. “She won’t be stopped,” one aide crowed. And then Clinton’s advisers turned to their other goal: denying For the bruised and bitter staff around Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, Tuesday’s death-defying victories in the Democratic presidential primaries in Ohio and TexasMark Penn credit. With a flurry of phone calls and e-mail messages that began before polls closed, campaign officials made clear to friends, colleagues and reporters that they did not view the wins as validation for the candidate’s chief strategist. “A lot of people would still like to see him go,” a senior adviser said.
FLORIDIANS MIGHT GET A SECOND VOTE (Lesley Clark and Beth Reinhard, Miami Herald) The resurgence of Hillary Clinton’s campaign against Barack Obama could force replays of the Florida and Michigan primaries as pressure mounts to break the deadlock over the Democratic nomination. Democratic members of Congress from both states huddled Wednesday evening on Capitol Hill and pledged to continue to seek a solution, while Florida party officials said they would survey both candidates’ campaigns to gauge interest in a new vote that could produce tie-breaking delegates. Clinton won the Florida and Michigan primaries in January, but didn’t earn delegates because the early votes broke national party rules.
