STEELING OBAMA (Douglas E. Schoen, Los Angeles Times) Conventional wisdom suggests that these last two months have been bad news for Barack Obama. He hasn’t been able to close the door on Democratic rival Hillary Rodham Clinton, who swept West Virginia on Tuesday. He’s been dogged by controversies over his words and associates. Meanwhile, Republican John McCain has been getting a jump-start on the fall campaign. Although those things may be true, so is this: The last six weeks have been a great benefit to Obama – and may emerge as the most important period of his quest for the presidency. The poll evidence is unambiguous: He’s suffered no short-term damage. A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows Obama leading McCain in a hypothetical matchup by six points; in February, he was trailing by two. The Rasmussen Reports’ estimate of electoral college strength has him leading McCain, 260 to 240. And a recent CBS/New York Times poll reveals that over the last few weeks, Obama’s favorability rating actually increased by five points. So these controversies of early 2008 have strengthened, not weakened, Obama’s position for the general election in November. How’s that?
MCCAIN AIDE TRAINS HIS SIGHTS ON OBAMA (Monica Langley, Wall Street Journal) When it comes to Sen. McCain’s image, Mr. Salter, 53 years old, is the campaign’s chief creator, shaper and enforcer. For two decades, he has been the presumed Republican nominee’s speechwriter, adviser and confidant. He has helped the senator write two best-selling memoirs, on which they split the proceeds 50-50. The senator says they are “like brothers.” Now that Sen. Barack Obama has emerged as the likely Democratic nominee, Mr. Salter is poised to play a large role in a general-election campaign filled with potential land mines, from race issues to Sen. McCain’s age, which is 71. Early signs are that Mr. Salter will urge a feisty campaign – in character for a man who once wrestled a persistent critic of the senator to the floor of a congressional hallway.
CLINTON’S 11TH HOUR PUSH (Alexander Bolton, The Hill) Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) rallied her Capitol Hill supporters on Wednesday night, telling them to bring an uncommitted friend and seeking to capitalize on her 41-percentage points victory in the West Virginia primary. But as she was scheduled to gather with her supporters, rival Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) grabbed another one — former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) endorsed him at a rally in Grand Rapids, Mich. Despite this blow, which handed Obama the support of a candidate whose appeal was largely to blue-collar workers, Clinton used the meeting at the Sewell-Belmont House to drive home the point that she is more competitive with precisely that category of voter, and in districts where Democrats will face their toughest races this fall. Clinton’s senior campaign adviser, Harold Ickes, met her congressional whip team Wednesday morning to make clear that she intends to stay in the race until June 3, the date of the last primary, despite recent speculation that she might drop her bid after Oregon and Kentucky hold primaries on May 20.
THE POLITICS OF THE LAPEL, WHEN IT COMES TO OBAMA (Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny, New York Times) It showed up on Monday, right there on his lapel, as he addressed veterans in West Virginia: a flag pin.There it was again on Tuesday, in Missouri, as he spoke to workers at a garment factory. And it was there Wednesday as he toured a Chrysler plant in Sterling Heights, Mich., near here in the Detroit suburbs. Seven months ago, Senator Barack Obama said he did not feel compelled to wear a flag pin, saying he would prove his patriotism in deed, not apparel. What gives? Was it the woman in Indiana who pulled him aside, gently suggesting that he wear one? Was it part of a larger embrace of all those things presidential candidates simply have to do on a campaign, along with eating cheese steaks in Philadelphia or chugging Miller in Milwaukee? Or was it in reaction to continued questions like the one this week from a local reporter in South Charleston, W.Va., who asked how Mr. Obama could attract “blue-collar, white voters in this state,” adding, “They think you are un-American.” None of the above, say Mr. Obama’s aides, who have insisted during these rare three days of pin wearing — the first consecutive days he has worn the pin in the campaign — that it is just fashion happenstance.
SIX WAYS THE GOP CAN SAVE ITSELF (Jim VandeHei and Mike Allen, Politico) 1. Get a clue: Republicans desperately need to cook up some new ideas and craft an attractive agenda to have any chance of success. 2. Cut the crap: Republicans are dominating Democrats in one area right now: humiliating sex scandals. 3. Beg for help: The Republican infrastructure is crumbling… For now, Republicans need their rich backers to crack open their wallets. 4. Burn the Bush: There is something honorable about loyalty. But taken too far, it can start to look downright loony to voters. President Bush is as unpopular as Richard Nixon was in the days before his resignation. Cut him loose — quick. 5. Change the pitch — and your face: Several well-known Republicans said the party needs fresh, reassuring packaging and a more diverse crowd to deliver it. 6. Fan the fear: Ignore the critics, Republican wise men say — there is still no better way to win than to stir up concerns about Democratic patriotism and their commitment to national security and killing terrorists. It often remains the best call in the GOP playbook, especially with McCain atop the ticket.
OBAMA AND OREGON: MORE IN COMMON THAN ‘O’ (Julia Silverman, Associated Press) Portland and its suburbs seem tailor-made for Obama. Residents are liberal-leaning, upwardly mobile, well educated and strongly opposed to the Iraq war. About 45 percent of the statewide Democratic primary vote in recent elections has come from the Portland area. Obama will not be able to count on the kind of big turnout from black voters that has boosted his vote totals in some southern states. Blacks account for only 1.7 percent of Oregon’s population, compared with 12.4 percent nationally, according to the Census Bureau. Also, the rest of the state is not as young or as hip as Portland. Overall, Oregon’s population is slightly older and has a slightly lower income than nationally, 2006 census data shows.
AGITATED? IRRITABLE? HOSTILE? AGGRESSIVE? IMPULSIVE? RESTLESS? (Dana Milbank, Washington Post) House Republicans may be heading off a cliff in November, but give them credit for perseverance. Even after the new slogan they floated – “The Change You Deserve” – was discovered to be trademarked ad copy for the antidepressant drug Effexor, GOP leaders decided to go with the rollout anyway… For House Republicans, the diagnosis is obvious: They are suffering from Election Anxiety Disorder. Tuesday night, they lost the third special election in a row to Democrats in heavily Republican congressional districts. Eighty-two percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, and they’re largely holding President Bush and his party responsible. This week, panicked House Republicans defied Bush and voted with Democrats to pass a farm bill and to divert oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
GOP CANCER: PARTY COULD LOSE 20 MORE SEATS (John F. Harris and Josh Kraushaar, Politico) The Republican defeat in Tuesday’s special election in Mississippi, in a deeply conservative district where, in an average year, Democrats cannot even compete, was a clear sign that the GOP has the political equivalent of cancer that has spread throughout the body. Many House GOP operatives are privately predicting that the party could easily lose up to 20 seats this fall. Combined with the 30 seats that the GOP lost in 2006, that would leave the party facing a 70-vote deficit against Democrats in the House — a state of powerlessness reminiscent of Republicans’ long wilderness years in the 1960s and ’70s. Things are not particularly more hopeful on the Senate side, where most analysts say Democrats have a strong chance of adding five or more seats to their current majority.
DEMOCRATIC HOLD ON JEWISH VOTE COULD SLIP (Elizabeth Holmes, Wall Street Journal) Is the Jewish vote up for grabs this year? Many Republicans think so – particularly with Barack Obama likely heading the Democratic ticket. That calculation has fueled an intense back-and-forth in recent days between the two parties over Sen. Obama’s views on Israel. While both Sen. Obama and Republican John McCain have strong pro-Israel records, Sen. McCain is seizing on other issues, such as Sen. Obama’s willingness to meet with Iran’s president, to press his case with Jewish voters. Republicans say Sen. McCain may be uniquely suited as their party’s nominee to draw Jewish support. He has a reputation as a moderate on some domestic issues and backing from Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, a prominent American-Jewish politician and former Democratic vice-presidential candidate. Obama backers say their candidate’s positions on social issues are more in tune with Jewish voters’ views.
PRO-ABORTION RIGHTS GROUP BACKS OBAMA OVER CLINTON (Sam Youngman, The Hill) NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC endorsed Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) Wednesday in what is another blow to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) nomination hopes despite her landslide victory in the West Virginia primary Tuesday night. NARAL officials said Wednesday that Clinton’s “viability” was an issue, but the group will not help Obama compete against her in the remaining primaries. “We are going to be focusing all of our efforts on the Obama-McCain race,” Elisabeth Shipp, NARAL’s political director, said… In a statement, Nancy Keenan, the group’s president, praised Clinton and Obama. “Pro-choice Americans have been fortunate to have two strong pro-choice candidates in Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton, both of whom have inspired millions of new voters to participate in this historic presidential race,” Keenan said. “Today, we are proud to put our organization’s grassroots and political support behind the pro-choice candidate whom we believe will secure the Democratic nomination and advance to the general election. That candidate is Sen. Obama.”
