BREATHLESS SPECULATION MARKS VEEPSTAKES (Jonathan Martin, Politico) The Democratic race isn’t even formally done, but the politico-media establishment has already moved on to the next stage. With word leaking last week about Barack Obama’s choice of a vetter and a closely-scrutinized weekend visit to John McCain’s ranch by three potential running mates, the veepstakes and all its breathless speculation is front and center… Never mind that the select few who know the most about an uber-secretive process usually say the least. It’s a quadrennial political ritual, a protracted and obsessive mulling of who will be tapped for the number two slot on the presidential ticket. Still, for all the reasons to dismiss the custom, the vagaries of the 2008 election offer some reason to believe the inordinate attention may actually be merited this year. The likely party nominees, John McCain and Barack Obama, are distinctive candidates saddled with unique vulnerabilities. With volatile political dynamics at work at the end of the Bush presidency, heightened attention on surrogates and the strong pull of history affecting the contest, the veepstakes could shape up as something much more than a temporary summer diversion before the conventions.
THE PROBLEM WITH TALKING TO IRAN (Amir Taheri, Wall Street Journal) There is, of course, nothing wrong with wanting to talk to an adversary. But Mr. Obama and his supporters should not pretend this is “change” in any real sense. Every U.S. administration in the past 30 years, from Jimmy Carter’s to George W. Bush’s, has tried to engage in dialogue with Iran’s leaders. They’ve all failed. Just two years ago, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice proffered an invitation to the Islamic Republic for talks, backed by promises of what one of her advisers described as “juicy carrots” with not a shadow of a stick. At the time, I happened to be in Washington. Early one morning, one of Ms. Rice’s assistants read the text of her statement (which was to be issued a few hours later) to me over the phone, asking my opinion. I said the move won’t work, but insisted that the statement should mention U.S. concern for human- rights violations in Iran. “We don’t wish to set preconditions,” was the answer. “We could raise all issues once they have agreed to talk.” I suppose Ms. Rice is still waiting for Iran’s mullahs to accept her invitation, even while Mr. Obama castigates her for not wanting to talk… The Islamic Republic does not know how to behave: as a nation-state, or as the embodiment of a revolution with universal messianic pretensions. Is it a country or a cause? A nation-state wants concrete things such as demarcated borders, markets, access to natural resources, security, influence, and, of course, stability – all things that could be negotiated with other nation-states. A revolution, on the other hand, doesn’t want anything in particular because it wants everything.
MCCAIN ACCEPTS A HAND FROM BUSH, AT ARM’S LENGTH (Michael Abramowitz, Michael D. Shear and Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post) The fleeting public appearances of an unpopular president on behalf of the potential heir to the leadership of the Republican Party underscore the delicate balance for McCain, who is trying to appeal to a restless GOP base that continues to embrace the president while reaching out to moderates and independents who want to move beyond the Bush administration. For now, the senator from Arizona remains locked in a tight race for the White House – evidence that Americans see him as a brand apart from the GOP. Whether McCain can continue soaring above his ailing party, or will find himself crashing down to Earth with it, could determine whether Republicans retain control of the White House next year.
DEM LAWYERS: FLA., MICH. CAN’T BE FULLY RESTORED (Nedra Pickler, Associated Press) A Democratic Party rules committee has the authority to seat some delegates from Michigan and Florida but not fully restore the two states as Hillary Rodham Clinton wants, according to party lawyers. Democratic National Committee rules require that the two states lose at least half of their convention delegates for holding elections too early, the party’s legal experts wrote in a 38-page memo… It underscores a prickly problem: If the Rules and Bylaws Committee decides to restore any of the states’ delegates, there is not a simple way to divide them between Clinton and Barack Obama… Clinton won the majority of the vote in Florida and Michigan and has been arguing that the delegates should be fully restored according to the results of the January primaries. But even if they were, it would not be enough for her to overtake Obama’s delegate lead… The analysis also said there is an option to restore 100 percent of the delegates — by a recommendation of the Credentials Committee that meets later this summer. However, that would mean a final decision would not be made until the first day of the convention in Denver since Credentials Committee decisions have to be approved by the full convention as it convenes — risking a floor fight.
MORE: Dems Seek to Avoid Meltdown (Roger Simon, Politico) I am reliably informed that the two co-chairs of the rules committee, Alexis Herman and James Roosevelt Jr., have been working with the Obama and Clinton campaigns to try to work out a compromise that would settle the matter at this weekend’s meeting and avoid further bloodletting. But finding a solution will not be easy, and one reason is that there are so many competing agendas. First, both Michigan and Florida have mounted furious public campaigns to get their punishment lifted, saying the party really has no choice if the Democratic nominee wants to win those states in November. Second, there is the Clinton campaign, which sees the rules committee meeting as its last, best hope to gain significant ground on Obama. Third, there is the Obama campaign, which does not want to see the gains it has made in primaries and caucuses overturned by a committee vote. Then, and most overlooked, is the agenda of the committee itself. It is a rules committee, its members believe in rules and that rules must be enforced, even as political realities are addressed.
EVEN MORE: Obama Urges Supporters Not to Demonstrate at Crucial DNC Meeting (Bob Cusack, The Hill)
STARK CONTRASTS BETWEEN MCCAIN AND OBAMA IN JUDICIAL WARS (Neil A. Lewis, New York Times) Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican nominee, has already asserted that if elected he would reinforce the conservative judicial counterrevolution that began with President Ronald Reagan by naming candidates for the bench with a reliable conservative outlook. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has been less explicit about how he would use the authority to nominate judicial candidates, but he would be able to — and fellow Democrats certainly expect him to — reverse or even undo the current conservative dominance of the courts. Both have been resolute soldiers in their parties’ political wars over judicial nominations during the last several years. While Mr. McCain has supported President Bush’s judicial nominees, including John G. Roberts Jr. as chief justice of the United States and Samuel A. Alito Jr. as an associate Supreme Court justice, Mr. Obama opposed those nominations and favored Democratic filibusters to block many Republican nominees deemed too conservative.
FIORINA BUTTRESSES MCCAIN ON ECONOMY (Indira A. R. Lakshmanan, Bloomberg News) By John McCain’s own admission, the economy isn’t his strong suit. The ace up his sleeve may be a polished corporate executive ranked six times as the U.S.’s most powerful businesswoman, who’s also among the most controversial. Carly Fiorina, 53, who ran Hewlett-Packard Co., the largest U.S. corporation headed by a woman, joined McCain’s bid for the Republican presidential nomination in March 2007, sticking with him even as the campaign faltered. This March, as he clinched the nomination, she reaped the reward and was appointed chairwoman of Victory ‘08, the public face of, and force behind, Republican efforts to win the White House… Fiorina’s importance as an economic adviser looms large because of McCain’s self-deprecating remarks about his lack of expertise on the issue. She dismissed those comments, which the candidate has made in a television debate, to reporters and in at least one town-hall meeting, as a reflection of his natural humility.'' Most important, she said, He knows the role of the government is to unleash the creativity of the American people.’’ His campaign, in turn, is banking on her corporate experience, life story and communication skills to attract voters anxious about the economy, as well as women and business donors to McCain, who lags behind his Democratic rivals in fundraising and votes cast in primaries.
IN RARE MOVE, THREE CANDIDATES JOIN IN PLEDGE ON DARFUR (Helene Cooper, New York Times) The three senators who would be president have agreed to a rare joint statement accusing the Sudanese government of atrocities against civilians in Darfur and warning it not to try to run out the clock on the Bush administration, which has called the killings in Darfur genocide… The statement is largely symbolic because the three are not proposing any specific Congressional action against Sudan. Nor are they calling for tangible steps by the United States to put pressure on the Sudanese government. For instance, the statement is silent about whether the Bush administration should use its turn as president of the United Nations Security Council in June to seek further ways to press Sudan. But the statement is meant to send a message to the government of President Omar Hassan al-Bashir of Sudan that the next American president will continue to sound an alarm on Darfur.
MCCAIN URGES NEW ARMS PACT WITH RUSSIA (Elisabeth Bumiller, New York Times) Senator John McCain distanced himself from the Bush administration on Tuesday by vowing to work more closely with Russia on nuclear disarmament and to move toward the elimination of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. In what his campaign promoted as a major speech on nuclear security policy, Mr. McCain told a small crowd at the University of Denver that he would pursue a new arms control agreement with the Russians and that he supported a legally binding accord between the two nations to replace verification requirements in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or Start, which expires in 2009. The Bush administration has refused to accept such binding limits on nuclear weapons, which its critics say has created paranoia in Moscow. Mr. McCain’s proposal to eliminate tactical nuclear weapons in Europe sets him apart from President Bush as well… Mr. Obama called last October for “a world in which there are no nuclear weapons,” a fact his campaign underscored on Tuesday. “By embracing many aspects of Barack Obama’s nonproliferation agenda today,” said a statement from Mr. Obama’s spokesman, Bill Burton, “John McCain highlighted Obama’s leadership on nuclear weapons throughout this campaign, and his bipartisan work with Richard Lugar in the Senate. No speech by John McCain can change the fact that he has not led on nonproliferation issues when he had the chance in the Senate.”
